"I'll win the Tour de France before Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination."

So says the slightly portly Charlie Cook, political prognosticator extraordinaire. He also says that John McCain has a 60 to 65% chance of being the Republican nominee in 2008.

I think he's right on both counts.

As to McCain, Republicans tend to operate on more of an "it's their turn" mentality when picking nominees. In 1980, it was Ronald Reagan's turn after he was defeated by Gerald Ford in their 1976 nomination fight. In 1996, Bob Dole was given the nod following his 1988 loss to George H.W. Bush.

In 2008, it's McCain's turn, although there will certainly be other challengers who'll want to have some say about that. But one can only wonder if the nomination that year will prove to be as valuable as it did for Dole in '96?

As to Giuliani, he is far too liberal to pass muster with a plurality of GOP primary voters, no matter how many candidates are in the field diluting the conservatives' numbers when things start in Iowa.